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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 14 at the 19

New York Giants 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 5-G.Gano 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.75 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 19, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model