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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 12

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(1:57) 15-M.Wright 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.43 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model