Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- QB edge to SF: Trevor Lawrence (JAX) -0.100 vs Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.213 EPA/dropback
- SF offense: +0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
- JAX offense: -0.067 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
- SF defense: +0.043 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
- Wind 17 mph
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 11
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 01:59 FG SF (1:59) 9-R.Gould 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 3 – JAX 0
- Q2 11:33 TD SF (11:33) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel left end for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 9 – JAX 0
- Q2 08:31 TD SF (8:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 11-B.Aiyuk for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 16 – JAX 0
- Q2 01:57 FG JAX (1:57) 15-M.Wright 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. SF 17 – JAX 3
- Q2 00:05 FG SF (:05) 9-R.Gould 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 20 – JAX 3
- Q3 08:55 TD SF (8:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 26 – JAX 3
- Q4 05:38 FG SF (5:38) 9-R.Gould 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 30 – JAX 3
- Q4 03:09 TD JAX (3:09) 25-J.Robinson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 30 – JAX 9
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 2Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.72 EPp(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%
(1:59) 9-R.Gould 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 JAX 4th & 5 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(:31) 9-L.Cooke punts 51 yards to SF 19, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-B.Aiyuk pushed ob at SF 20 for 1 yard (38-A.Cisco).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 JAX 4th & 6 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 95%
(1:57) 15-M.Wright 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 JAX 4th & 10 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(14:42) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to SF 23, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 11-B.Aiyuk.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 SF 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%
(8:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 JAX 4th & 12 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(5:12) 9-L.Cooke punts 51 yards to SF 9, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 11-B.Aiyuk.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 SF 4th & 5 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(2:51) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to JAX 29, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 51Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 19%
(14:27) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 39-J.Agnew to SF 48 for 3 yards (1-J.Ward). JAX-39-J.Agnew was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. JAX-74-C.Robinson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SF 4th & 12 at the 87Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(8:45) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to JAX 44, Center-46-T.Pepper. 7-T.Austin MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SF-81-T.Sherfield at JAX 44.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 79%
(5:38) 9-R.Gould 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
See the full breakdown →
