Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 75

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – San Francisco 49ers 20

(14:42) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to SF 23, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 11-B.Aiyuk.

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model