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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 1

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(8:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.63 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 1, worth +0.16 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model