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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 51

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – San Francisco 49ers 27

What Actually Happened

(14:27) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 39-J.Agnew to SF 48 for 3 yards (1-J.Ward). JAX-39-J.Agnew was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. JAX-74-C.Robinson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.80 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.31 EP
KICK -1.39 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model