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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 2

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(1:59) 9-R.Gould 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +4.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.39 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 2, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.72 EP