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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 70

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(:31) 9-L.Cooke punts 51 yards to SF 19, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-B.Aiyuk pushed ob at SF 20 for 1 yard (38-A.Cisco).

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.11 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model