Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 68

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 0

(12:53) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to DET 22, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-K.Raymond to DET 31 for 9 yards (23-M.Christian; 48-P.Scales).

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.78 EP
61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 68, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model