Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- DET offense: -0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- DET defense: +0.113 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- CHI offense: -0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
- QB edge to CHI: Jared Goff (DET) -0.124 vs Andy Dalton (CHI) -0.030 EPA/dropback (DET starting Jared Goff in place of Tim Boyle; CHI starting Andy Dalton in place of Justin Fields)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- CHI defense: +0.093 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 12
CHI
DET
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:33 TD DET (9:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 8-J.Reynolds for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – DET 6
- Q2 13:27 FG CHI (13:27) 2-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 3 – DET 7
- Q2 04:33 TD CHI (4:33) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 80-J.Graham for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 9 – DET 7
- Q2 00:04 FG CHI (:04) 2-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 13 – DET 7
- Q3 01:51 TD DET (1:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 88-T.Hockenson for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – DET 13
- Q4 00:01 FG CHI (:01) 2-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 16 – DET 14
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 CHI 4th & 8 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(12:53) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to DET 22, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-K.Raymond to DET 31 for 9 yards (23-M.Christian; 48-P.Scales).
-
Q1 CHI 4th & 2 at the 51Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EPp(convert) 60% p(FG) 32%
(5:28) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to DET 7, Center-48-P.Scales. 39-J.Jacobs MUFFS catch, and recovers at DET 4.
-
Q1 DET 4th & 10 at the 96Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(3:14) 3-J.Fox punts 70 yards to CHI 26, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-27-B.Price. PENALTY on CHI-57-C.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 26.
-
Q2 CHI 4th & 8 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%
(13:27) 2-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
-
Q2 DET 4th & 16 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(1:22) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to CHI 41, Center-47-S.Daly. 17-J.Grant pushed ob at CHI 46 for 5 yards (18-K.Hodge).
-
Q3 DET 4th & 4 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(12:59) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to CHI 30, Center-47-S.Daly. 17-J.Grant to CHI 43 for 13 yards (57-A.Pittman, 47-S.Daly).
-
Q3 CHI 4th & 16 at the 35Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 70%
(8:43) 2-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
-
Q3 DET 4th & 5 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 30%
(7:16) 3-J.Fox punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-47-S.Daly, Touchback.
-
Q3 CHI 4th & 2 at the 72Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EPp(convert) 62%
(5:13) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to DET 21, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.
-
Q4 CHI 4th & 9 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 36%
(12:19) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to DET 10, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-35-R.Nall.
-
Q4 CHI 4th & 10 at the 10 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%
(:01) 2-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.