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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 73

Detroit Lions 7 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to CHI 30, Center-47-S.Daly. 17-J.Grant to CHI 43 for 13 yards (57-A.Pittman, 47-S.Daly).

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.69 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 73, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 31, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model