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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 72

Chicago Bears 13 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to DET 21, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.16 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 72, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 30, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP