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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 49

Chicago Bears 13 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to DET 10, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-35-R.Nall.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.21 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.07 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model