Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 96

Detroit Lions 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 3-J.Fox punts 70 yards to CHI 26, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-27-B.Price. PENALTY on CHI-57-C.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 26.

The Three Options

GO -3.45 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.61 EP
63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 96, worth -5.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model