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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 59

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Green Bay Packers 13

What Actually Happened

(8:22) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to GB 22, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-R.Cobb MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LA-31-R.Rochell at GB 25.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.05 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP