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Los Angeles Rams

7-4 HC Sean McVay
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Green Bay Packers

9-3 HC Matt LaFleur
Sunday 2021-11-28 · 16:25 ET Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

LA
45.0%
GB
55.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.153 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • LA offense: +0.105 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • LA on 6 more days rest than GB
  • QB edge to LA: Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.189 vs Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.228 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

LA 21 14–28
–
GB 25 18–32
Projected margin: GB by 4 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 12

LA

Donte Deayon CB Questionable Thigh
Ben Skowronek WR Questionable Back

GB

David Bakhtiari T Out Knee
Malik Taylor WR Out Abdomen
Kevin King CB Doubtful Hip
Rashan Gary LB Questionable Elbow
Aaron Jones RB Questionable Knee
Allen Lazard WR Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 28
–
GB 36

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:16 TD GB (2:16) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – GB 6
  • Q2 13:34 FG GB (13:34) 2-M.Crosby 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez. LA 0 – GB 10
  • Q2 12:53 TD LA (12:53) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 12-V.Jefferson for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-K.Clark]. LA 6 – GB 10
  • Q2 09:44 FG GB (9:44) 2-M.Crosby 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez. LA 7 – GB 13
  • Q2 07:24 FG LA (7:24) 8-M.Gay 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 10 – GB 13
  • Q2 04:25 TD GB (4:25) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 18-R.Cobb for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [45-O.Okoronkwo]. LA 10 – GB 19
  • Q2 01:33 TD LA (1:33) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 27-D.Henderson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 16 – GB 20
  • Q3 07:23 TD GB (7:23) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 28-A.Dillon for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 17 – GB 26
  • Q3 02:32 FG GB (2:32) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez. LA 17 – GB 30
  • Q3 02:01 TD GB (2:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 29-R.Douglas at LA 33. 29-R.Douglas for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 17 – GB 36
  • Q4 15:00 TD LA (15:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 3-O.Beckham for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 23 – GB 36
  • Q4 00:22 FG LA (:22) 8-M.Gay 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 28 – GB 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:43) 6-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to GB 6, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-31-R.Rochell.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73% p(FG) 21%

    (7:12) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon up the middle to LA 49 for 2 yards (91-G.Gaines).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 GB 4th & 11 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 54%

    (4:30) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 23 yards to LA 15, Center-46-S.Wirtel, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (:27) 27-D.Henderson left tackle to LA 29 for no gain (31-A.Amos).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 GB 4th & 7 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 82%

    (13:34) 2-M.Crosby 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 97%

    (9:44) 2-M.Crosby 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (8:22) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to GB 22, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-R.Cobb MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LA-31-R.Rochell at GB 25.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 18
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 92%

    (7:24) 8-M.Gay 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 GB 4th & 3 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 21%

    (:17) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to LA 10, Center-46-S.Wirtel, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 GB 4th & 2 at the 21
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 89%

    (8:41) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 81-J.Deguara to LA 9 for 12 yards (51-T.Reeder).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LA 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:44) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to GB 34, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-31-R.Rochell.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 GB 4th & 12 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (5:02) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to LA 15, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 17-J.Koski to LA 28 for 13 yards (49-D.Dafney, 22-S.Jean-Charles). FUMBLES (49-D.Dafney), RECOVERED by GB-51-K.Barnes at LA 28. 51-K.Barnes to LA 27 for 1 yard (38-B.Howell).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 GB 4th & 6 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 96%

    (2:32) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 GB 4th & 6 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (12:52) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 61 yards to LA 1, Center-46-S.Wirtel, downed by GB-19-E.St. Brown.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (10:56) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to GB 33, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 GB 4th & 11 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:43) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 34 yards to LA 20, Center-46-S.Wirtel, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LA 4th & 18 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:30) 6-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to GB 45, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 24 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 85%

    (3:09) 2-M.Crosby 42 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 21 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 89%

    (:22) 8-M.Gay 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

    See the full breakdown →