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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 18

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Green Bay Packers 13

What Actually Happened

(7:24) 8-M.Gay 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.87 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP