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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 59

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:43) 6-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to GB 6, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-31-R.Rochell.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.41 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 18, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model