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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 51

Green Bay Packers 20 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(:17) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to LA 10, Center-46-S.Wirtel, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.19 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 51, worth -1.10 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model