Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 12 at the 68

Green Bay Packers 27 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(5:02) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to LA 15, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 17-J.Koski to LA 28 for 13 yards (49-D.Dafney, 22-S.Jean-Charles). FUMBLES (49-D.Dafney), RECOVERED by GB-51-K.Barnes at LA 28. 51-K.Barnes to LA 27 for 1 yard (38-B.Howell).

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.50 EP
65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 68, worth -3.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model