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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 74

Los Angeles Rams 25 – Green Bay Packers 36

What Actually Happened

(10:56) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to GB 33, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.21 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP