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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 51

Green Bay Packers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(7:12) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon up the middle to LA 49 for 2 yards (91-G.Gaines).

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.03 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 51, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -1.41 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model