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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 18 at the 78

Los Angeles Rams 25 – Green Bay Packers 36

What Actually Happened

(6:30) 6-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to GB 45, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.85 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 35, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model