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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 21

Los Angeles Rams 25 – Green Bay Packers 36

What Actually Happened

(:22) 8-M.Gay 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +2.36 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +2.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.89 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 31, worth -0.24 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model