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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 26

Green Bay Packers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(13:34) 2-M.Crosby 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.86 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 36, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model