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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 68

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(11:17) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 51 yards to MIN 17, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.45 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 68, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 26, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP