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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2021-11-28 · 16:25 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

MIN
44.6%
SF
55.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN offense: +0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • SF offense: +0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.231 vs Kirk Cousins (MIN) +0.183 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

MIN 24
–
SF 27
Projected margin: SF by 3 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

MIN

Everson Griffen DE Out Not injury related - personal matter
Camryn Bynum S Questionable Ankle
Wyatt Davis G Questionable Ankle
Josh Metellus S Questionable Not Injury Related

SF

Jamycal Hasty RB Out Ankle
Maurice Hurst DT Doubtful Calf
Elijah Mitchell RB Questionable Rib

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 26
–
SF 34

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:32 TD MIN (8:32) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – SF 0
  • Q1 05:39 TD SF (5:39) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel right end for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN-22-H.Smith, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. MIN 7 – SF 6
  • Q2 12:49 TD MIN (12:49) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 19-A.Thielen for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 13 – SF 7
  • Q2 00:22 TD SF (:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 15-J.Jennings for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at Min 1. 1-YAC MIN 14 – SF 13
  • Q3 11:36 TD SF (11:36) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 14 – SF 20
  • Q3 11:13 TD SF (11:13) 25-E.Mitchell right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 14 – SF 27
  • Q3 08:34 TD MIN (8:34) 25-A.Mattison left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 20 – SF 28
  • Q3 05:03 FG SF (5:03) 9-R.Gould 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. MIN 20 – SF 31
  • Q3 04:58 TD MIN 18-M.Wishnowsky kicks 64 yards from SF 35 to MIN 1. 26-K.Nwangwu for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 26 – SF 31
  • Q3 00:13 FG SF (:13) 9-R.Gould 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. MIN 26 – SF 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 6 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (14:16) 3-J.Berry punts 45 yards to SF 29, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-B.Aiyuk.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 99%

    (8:32) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 2 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (3:27) 3-J.Berry punts 56 yards to SF 19, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 31 for 12 yards (29-K.Boyd).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 16 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:41) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (11:17) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 51 yards to MIN 17, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 10 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (8:50) 3-J.Berry punts 59 yards to SF 13, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-B.Aiyuk ran ob at SF 15 for 2 yards (44-J.Metellus). SF-28-T.Sermon was injured during the play.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 9 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 81%

    (5:03) 9-R.Gould 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 14 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:46) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (:13) 9-R.Gould 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (9:09) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 18-J.Jefferson [56-S.Ebukam].

  • Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 24 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 86%

    (2:00) 9-R.Gould 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 8 at the 38 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 59%

    (:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 18-J.Jefferson.