Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 72

Minnesota Vikings 14 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 3-J.Berry punts 59 yards to SF 13, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-B.Aiyuk ran ob at SF 15 for 2 yards (44-J.Metellus). SF-28-T.Sermon was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.18 EP
63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model