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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 4

San Francisco 49ers 31 – Minnesota Vikings 26

What Actually Happened

(:13) 9-R.Gould 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.13 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 4, worth +0.49 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP