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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 24

San Francisco 49ers 34 – Minnesota Vikings 26

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 9-R.Gould 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +1.48 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 34, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model