Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q1
Minnesota Vikings
4th & 2 at the 2
Minnesota Vikings 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0
What Actually Happened
(8:32) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.34 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
55% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
- 45% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 2, worth +0.33 EP
KICK
+1.85 EP
- 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
- 1% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT
-0.05 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
