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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 75

Minnesota Vikings 7 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:27) 3-J.Berry punts 56 yards to SF 19, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 31 for 12 yards (29-K.Boyd).

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.02 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.63 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP