Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 16 at the 65

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

(:41) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.81 EP
71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 65, worth -3.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model