4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 66

Houston Texans 14 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(6:45) 11-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to NYJ 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 30 for 17 yards (36-J.Owens).

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.28 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 66, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 24, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model