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NYJ Away

New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC David Culley
Sunday 2021-11-28 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

NYJ
48.3%
HOU
51.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.286 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Zach Wilson (NYJ): -0.252 EPA/dropback in prior starts (NYJ starting Zach Wilson in place of Joe Flacco)
  • NYJ defense: +0.219 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • NYJ offense: -0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • HOU defense: +0.095 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 22
–
HOU 23
Projected margin: HOU by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

NYJ

Michael Carter RB Out Ankle
Corey Davis WR Questionable Groin
Folorunso Fatukasi DT Questionable Foot
John Franklin-Myers DE Questionable Hip
Shaq Lawson DE Questionable Wrist
C.J. Mosley LB Questionable Shoulder
Nathan Shepherd DT Questionable Elbow

HOU

Jordan Jenkins DE Out Knee
Deshaun Watson QB Out Not injury related - personal matter
Davion Davis WR Questionable Illness
Nico Collins WR Questionable Hip
Jonathan Greenard DE Questionable Foot
Lonnie Johnson CB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 21
–
HOU 14

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:37 FG NYJ (5:37) 6-M.Ammendola 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. NYJ 3 – HOU 0
  • Q2 14:23 TD HOU (14:23) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short middle to 9-B.Jordan for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 3 – HOU 6
  • Q2 10:36 TD HOU (10:36) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right to 13-B.Cooks for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYJ-37-B.Hall, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. NYJ 3 – HOU 13
  • Q2 01:16 TD NYJ (1:16) (Shotgun) 36-A.Walter up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 9 – HOU 14
  • Q3 07:57 TD NYJ (7:57) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 17 – HOU 14
  • Q4 03:37 FG NYJ (3:37) 6-M.Ammendola 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. NYJ 21 – HOU 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (12:11) 74-M.Scharping reported in as eligible. 28-R.Burkhead up the middle to NYJ 49 for 10 yards (56-Qu.Williams).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

    (5:37) 6-M.Ammendola 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (3:38) 11-C.Johnston punts 56 yards to NYJ 25, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:24) 7-B.Mann punts 43 yards to HOU 33, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (9:03) 7-B.Mann punts 44 yards to HOU 24, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-D.King to HOU 31 for 7 yards (86-R.Griffin).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 7 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:45) 11-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to NYJ 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 30 for 17 yards (36-J.Owens).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:16) 11-C.Johnston punts 32 yards to NYJ 26, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU. Punt tipped by 83 K.Yeboah

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 88%

    (13:31) 6-M.Ammendola 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (12:20) 11-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to NYJ 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:33) 7-B.Mann punts 29 yards to NYJ 37, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 66%

    (9:58) 7-K.Fairbairn 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 66%

    (7:06) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short middle to 88-K.Cole to HOU 24 for 13 yards (51-K.Grugier-Hill).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 15 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 95%

    (4:45) 8-E.Moore left end to HOU 8 for 7 yards (51-K.Grugier-Hill).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 19 at the 19 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 92%

    (3:37) 6-M.Ammendola 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 2 at the 61 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (2:10) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete short right to 12-N.Collins (37-B.Hall).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 40 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.36 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 59%

    (:31) 7-B.Mann punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.