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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 59

Houston Texans 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(12:11) 74-M.Scharping reported in as eligible. 28-R.Burkhead up the middle to NYJ 49 for 10 yards (56-Qu.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.73 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 59, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.35 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 18, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model