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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 15

New York Jets 18 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(4:45) 8-E.Moore left end to HOU 8 for 7 yards (51-K.Grugier-Hill).

The Three Options

GO +2.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.71 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 15, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model