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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 19 at the 19

New York Jets 18 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(3:37) 6-M.Ammendola 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 21% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.34 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 19, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 29, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model