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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 40

New York Jets 21 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(:31) 7-B.Mann punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +1.21 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 40, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.78 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.36 EP