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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 13

New York Jets 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(5:37) 6-M.Ammendola 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.65 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 13, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 23, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model