4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 76

New York Jets 3 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(13:24) 7-B.Mann punts 43 yards to HOU 33, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.69 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 34, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model