Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 73

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(13:54) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to PHI 27, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 31 for 4 yards (39-E.Penny; 20-J.Love).

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +2.12 EP
55% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 73, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model