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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Joe Judge
Sunday 2021-11-28 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -4.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

PHI
59.7%
NYG
40.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • NYG offense: -0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Daniel Jones (NYG): -0.042 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

PHI 24
–
NYG 21
Projected margin: PHI by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

PHI

Jordan Howard RB Out Knee
Tay Gowan CB Questionable Quadricep

NYG

Cullen Gillaspia FB Out Calf
Sterling Shepard WR Out Quadricep
Kaden Smith TE Out Knee
Kyle Rudolph TE Doubtful Ankle
Kadarius Toney WR Doubtful Quadricep
Saquon Barkley RB Questionable Ankle
John Ross WR Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 7
–
NYG 13

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:48 FG NYG (6:48) 5-G.Gano 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. PHI 0 – NYG 3
  • Q3 06:55 TD NYG (6:55) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 41-C.Myarick for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – NYG 9
  • Q4 15:00 TD PHI (15:00) (Shotgun) 35-B.Scott right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – NYG 10
  • Q4 02:59 FG NYG (2:59) 5-G.Gano 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. PHI 7 – NYG 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 5 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:54) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to PHI 27, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 31 for 4 yards (39-E.Penny; 20-J.Love).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 10 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:19) 8-A.Siposs punts 42 yards to NYG 27, Center-45-R.Lovato. 83-P.Cooper pushed ob at NYG 36 for 9 yards (57-T.Edwards).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 70%

    (9:10) (No Huddle) 8-D.Jones left guard to PHI 33 for 1 yard (90-R.Kerrigan, 49-A.Singleton).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 8 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%

    (6:48) 5-G.Gano 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 72%

    (11:52) 5-G.Gano 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:53) 8-A.Siposs punts 46 yards to NYG 13, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 2 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 56%

    (12:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 18-J.Reagor (33-A.Robinson).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:03) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to PHI 32, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 35 for 3 yards (95-Q.Roche).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 9 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 28%

    (10:23) 8-A.Siposs punts 42 yards to NYG 9, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 83-P.Cooper.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 7 at the 21 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 90%

    (2:59) 5-G.Gano 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 18 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (1:19) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to PHI 32, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-J.Reagor pushed ob at PHI 41 for 9 yards (37-G.Brightwell).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 10 at the 27 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.50 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 83%

    (:25) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep middle to 18-J.Reagor.