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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 40

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(12:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 18-J.Reagor (33-A.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.42 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.38 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model