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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 69

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 8-A.Siposs punts 42 yards to NYG 27, Center-45-R.Lovato. 83-P.Cooper pushed ob at NYG 36 for 9 yards (57-T.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.75 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 69, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 27, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model