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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 51

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 8-A.Siposs punts 42 yards to NYG 9, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 83-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.99 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 51, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.45 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model