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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 74

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(14:11) 8-B.Pinion punts 14 yards to TB 40, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds. PENALTY on TB-97-Z.Triner, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 40.

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.12 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 74, worth -4.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -2.12 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 32, worth -2.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model