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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Bruce Arians
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
Sunday 2021-11-28 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 53.0

Win Probability

TB
49.9%
IND
50.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.155 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • IND offense: +0.192 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Tom Brady (TB): +0.200 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

TB 24
–
IND 25
Projected margin: IND by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

TB

Antonio Brown WR Out Ankle
Ali Marpet G Doubtful Abdomen
Vita Vea DT Questionable Knee
Devin White LB Questionable Quadricep

IND

Shaquille Leonard LB Questionable Ankle
Quenton Nelson G Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 38
–
IND 31

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:36 FG IND (12:36) 6-M.Badgley 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. TB 0 – IND 3
  • Q2 13:25 TD TB (13:25) 7-L.Fournette left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – IND 3
  • Q2 11:52 TD IND (11:52) 2-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 16-A.Dulin for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 7 – IND 9
  • Q2 05:12 TD IND (5:12) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short right to 84-J.Doyle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 7 – IND 16
  • Q2 02:00 TD TB (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 7-L.Fournette for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 13 – IND 17
  • Q2 00:22 TD IND (:22) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short right to 13-T.Hilton for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 14 – IND 23
  • Q3 08:10 TD TB (8:10) (Shotgun) 7-L.Fournette right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 20 – IND 24
  • Q3 01:09 TD TB (1:09) 72-J.Wells reported in as eligible. 27-R.Jones up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 27 – IND 24
  • Q4 10:11 FG TB (10:11) 3-R.Succop 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. TB 31 – IND 24
  • Q4 03:33 TD IND (3:33) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 31 – IND 30
  • Q4 00:29 TD TB (:29) 72-J.Wells reported in as eligible. 7-L.Fournette left end for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 37 – IND 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 6 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (14:11) 8-B.Pinion punts 14 yards to TB 40, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds. PENALTY on TB-97-Z.Triner, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 40.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 6 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 86%

    (12:36) 6-M.Badgley 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (9:02) 8-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to TB 16, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-30-G.Odum.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 4 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (6:51) 8-B.Pinion punts 54 yards to IND 24, Center-97-Z.Triner. 21-N.Hines to IND 33 for 9 yards (52-K.Britt, 48-G.Stuard).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 8 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (5:17) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to TB 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 1-J.Darden to TB 17 for -1 yards (16-A.Dulin).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 6 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (3:35) 8-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to IND 24, Center-97-Z.Triner. 21-N.Hines pushed ob at IND 37 for 13 yards (98-A.Nelson).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 93%

    (5:57) 2-C.Wentz up the middle to TB 15 for 3 yards (92-W.Gholston).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 98%

    (:22) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short right to 13-T.Hilton for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (14:18) 8-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to TB 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 1-J.Darden to TB 38 for 4 yards (44-Z.Franklin).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:36) 8-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to IND 17, Center-97-Z.Triner. 21-N.Hines MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TB-10-S.Miller at IND 19.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (10:11) 3-R.Succop 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.