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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 4

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(:22) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short right to 13-T.Hilton for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.12 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +2.64 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.25 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model