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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 15 at the 80

Indianapolis Colts 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28

What Actually Happened

(14:18) 8-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to TB 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 1-J.Darden to TB 38 for 4 yards (44-Z.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 37, worth -1.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model